COLUMBIA, Mo. 鈥 One team competing for seeding. Another team battling to stay on the right side of the bubble.
That鈥檚 the surface-level makeup of No. 15 Missouri and Arkansas, which will meet for the second time this season at 7 p.m. Saturday in Fayetteville, a nationally televised game on ESPN.
The Tigers (20-6 overall, 9-4 Southeastern Conference) enter their final five games of the regular season with a chance at cracking the top four seeds in both the SEC and NCAA Tournaments. The Razorbacks (15-11, 4-9) are in need of wins to make it into the latter postseason competition.
Mizzou beat the Hogs at home earlier this year, winning 83-65 on Jan. 18. Five MU players scored in double figures in that game, with forward Mark Mitchell and guard Caleb Grill leading the charge with 17 points apiece. Missouri led by 17 points at halftime of that contest after one of its trademark fast starts to an SEC game.
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Yet both teams will look different for Saturday鈥檚 contest.
Mizzou carries the swagger of a tournament lock that stands to secure a high-end seed with appropriate performances in the five winnable games standing between now and the end of the regular season. ESPN bracketologist has the Tigers as a No. 5 seed entering the weekend鈥檚 games, and a win would expand the case for that projection to become a No. 4 seed.
MU could also climb the SEC ladder with a win and results elsewhere in the league, with the likes of fourth-place Texas A&M facing No. 6 Tennessee and third-place Alabama facing No. 17 Kentucky.
Seems like a jump in what this time of year means from the expectations even just a couple of months ago, no? MU coach Dennis Gates said Friday that this is the position the Tigers planned to be in.
鈥淲e talked about this in June,鈥 he said. 鈥淲e prepped (for) this June. We talked about our destination and the things that we will have to do. So for me, it鈥檚 back to work. 鈥 We鈥檙e just in this phase where others on the outside is starting to recognize, as they compare us to the others that they spent a lot of time watching. Now you鈥檙e watching Missouri, and I guess everyone likes what they see.鈥
That being the present calculus and sentiment for Mizzou shows a contrast with Arkansas, which needs three or four wins of its final five games to snag a spot in the NCAA Tournament field. Saturday is one of three remaining home games the Razorbacks, coached by legendary former Kentucky coach John Calipari, have to leverage any Bud Walton Arena advantage.
In that sense, the Hogs are a quintessential bubble team to most 鈥 but not to Gates, who took issue with the Post-Dispatch鈥檚 question about any added urgency on the part of Arkansas when that question described the program as on the bubble. He鈥檚 been steadfast in advocating for 14 teams to make the NCAA Tournament, and he was passionate Friday in arguing that the Razorbacks are already among that group.
鈥淭hey鈥檙e not on the bubble,鈥 Gates said. 鈥淭hey鈥檙e an NCAA Tournament team. They鈥檙e top 25 in my eyes and then our team鈥檚 eyes. We don鈥檛 go 鈥榖ubble鈥 and 鈥榦ff the bubble.鈥 In every preseason publication, this team was ranked, what, top 10? They have not changed. Calipari has not changed his coaching style. He鈥檚 the same coach that everybody said was a top 25 team, top 10 in the country. That鈥檚 what we go off of.
鈥淲e don鈥檛 go with the ebb and flows of what opinions are from (the Associated Press Poll) and what they think 鈥 unless everybody watches every game. Which I am shocked if every voter watches everybody鈥檚 game in the top 25 to compare and put their votes in. The only room that does that (the NCAA Selection Committee) just announced only 16 (top teams, released last Saturday). That鈥檚 the only ranking that matters in college basketball. We wasn鈥檛 a part of that 16. They wasn鈥檛 a part of that 16. That鈥檚 all that counts. It鈥檚 two great basketball teams that I truly believe, in our conference, are NCAA Tournament teams. I don鈥檛 know nothing about a bubble.鈥
Now that鈥檚 a supportive opposing coach. Despite his conviction, there is one clear change from the Arkansas team that Gates saw last month and the present one: Boogie Fland, the freshman guard who played a team-high 33 minutes against the Tigers, hurt his hand in that game and is out for the rest of the season. That leaves the Hogs with an eight-man rotation.
Forward Adou Thiero and guard Johnell Davis are the two primary offensive weapons for the Razorbacks.
Though Arkansas has lost three of its last five games 鈥 albeit to top-eight opponents in Alabama, Texas A&M and Auburn 鈥 its defense seems to have improved. The only teams to have scored 80 or more points against the Hogs are MU and the Crimson Tide. In the last five games, the Razorbacks have posted the second-best defensive rating in the SEC.
鈥淭he depth is what it is,鈥 Gates said, 鈥渂ut they鈥檙e prepared to play.鈥
Gates makes Coach of the Year watchlist
Gates, in his third year coaching the Tigers, has been named to the Naismith Coach of the Year watch list, which includes 15 candidates for the award.
Having already spearheaded a remarkable turnaround from last season鈥檚 struggles 鈥 regardless of what the postseason looks like for MU 鈥 Gates is a strong contender for coaching accolades.
He would be the first Mizzou coach to win a national coach of the year honor since Frank Haith in 2012.
Three coaches from the SEC, widely considered to be the best and deepest conference in college basketball this year, made the watch list: Gates, Florida鈥檚 Todd Golden and Auburn鈥檚 Bruce Pearl.
Mizzou basketball coach Dennis Gates speaks with the media on Tuesday, Oct. 15, 2024, about Black head coaches at Southeastern Conference media days in Birmingham, Alabama, (Video courtesy Southeastern Conference)
