Salutations, and welcome to an NLCS week Cardinals chat here at the Post-Dispatch and .
'Tis the time of year when the leaves start to change, the sweatshirts come out, and day after day after day Cardinals fans are reminded of what happened on this date in club history.
And, this year, what won't happen on this date for the club in the present.
A remarkable postseason has marched on without the Cardinals for a second consecutive year, though former Cardinals abound within Major League Baseball's October tournament. Jack Flaherty was superb for the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 1 of the National League Championship Series, helped along by a defense and lineup that also featured Tommy Edman. Lane Thomas' grand slam vaulted Cleveland to the American League Championship Series, which opens Monday night against the Yankees in the Bronx.
That is the backdrop for your questions, concerns, and criticisms.
So let's dive into the weekly mosh pit.
As always, a transcript of the chat will appear below the chat window, so that if you read this entry or any other article at , you should be able to read that real-time transcript easily on your laptop, tablet, or mobile. Questions and complaints are not edited for spelling or grammar.
They are ignored if they include vulgarities and any threats of violence.
Away we go.聽
Greg: With this offseason of change are they just looking to just cut payroll or maximize what they can out of what they鈥檝e got to sell?
DG: That's a great question -- and it's an answer that will reveal itself within weeks of the World Series ending. They have not signaled one way or the other, and coming out of the press conference they even suggested that the decisions like that would be made a) in the coming weeks and b) respond to the market. What that last part means is that they would see what offers they could get for Helsley this winter, and then gear their moves elsewhere to the package of talents they could get for the closer. They're going to cut payroll. There will be a natural trim with Lynn's option, and if they opt not to keep Gibson that too will be telling for what it means for immediately dropping salary from the 2025 payroll. Those are the two early indicators: Gibson's option and what they hear from other teams and the interest in Helsley.
Ken: Hi Derrick. Well as I was saying last week as we battened down the hatches for another hurricane here in Tampa Bay ( we鈥檙e all glad it鈥檚 over ) what鈥檚 the gist of the chatters. ? I have read here and on JG鈥檚 chat 鈥 let鈥檚 rebuild 鈥 . I鈥檓 not so sure a teardown is in the Cards best interest. Look at what KC did in a year. That should be the modell
DG: I hope you and your close ones are safe. The whipsaw of two hurricanes and the destruction caused is alarming.
I am not sure KC is the model for the Cardinals because, well, they haven't had the years of losing and high draft picks that preceded the Royals spending and rebound this year. Let's be candid about this. The Royals won the World Series in 2015.
They did not have a winning season again until 2024, this season.
They had three 100-loss seasons.
They never finished higher than third in the vulnerable AL Central during that time.
They had the second overall pick in 2019 and took an all-world great player in Bobby Witt Jr. They also had six top-nine picks in the past six years.
For context, the Cardinals have had six top-nine picks in ...
... the past 40 years.
Let's also throw in that the spending this past year for the Royals can at the same time they're trying to build public support for a new stadium and a move closer to downtown, complete with the funding to do so. Maybe that is where the comparison should begin, because the Cardinals -- to date -- don't have the 100-loss seasons (plural) and high picks (plural) to do what the Royals did for the first time in nearly a decade.
CDP: Historically, the Cardinals have opted to spread their international dollars over a larger number of prospects vs signing the higher rated prospects that command a larger dollar amount. Do you see a shift in this approach under Chaim Bloom? It seems with his time in Tampa and Boston, those organizations were often times mentioned as contenders for those at the top of the international prospect lists.
DG: I don't see an immediate shift, no. Mentioned as contenders and completing the deals are different things. A look through recent international signings and the Rays had a couple that stood out as headliners. Franco, before allegations and the legal case that's followed, signed for more than $3 million. They have a young outfielder who signed for $3.7 million recently. That obviously came after Bloom's time with the Rays.
What's driven the Cardinals' approach is where they've had the most success -- quantity. Increasing their odds of getting several contributors, vs. investing heavily in one player and banking on him producing. So it would be quite a paradigm shift for them to go back to take that risk, and ownership would be involved in shaping that. This year has been tricky for the Cardinals because their director of international scouting left and assistant general manager Moises Rodriguez has been more involved again in directing that area, where they had success under his leadership before. International acquisition is definitely an area of improvement for the Cardinals, and it's not unusual for them and not unusual for any club, honestly, to cast a wide net first to build depth before isolating on one or a few talents. Also, keep an eye on the rising talent from Asia for the Cardinals. Cho and Lin are going to rise up the rankings this year.
Bob the Subscriber: When it comes to replacing Ward and LaRocque, are there any hints about the Team's thinking that you can share? Do you expect internal promotions or for the team to look outside the org? anything else you can pass along?
DG: Trust me, if I had hints on names, etc., I would not wait for the weekly chat to write about them. That would be news to share with subscribers. They are indeed exploring internal promotions for coaches. That could outfit the staff while they look at outside candidates for the hitting coach or offensive coordinator position. As mentioned before, Donnie Ecker has been on the radar for the Cardinals for awhile, but he's also moved up the dugout ranks with Texas. The Cardinals are looking at outside candidates for the farm director role, and they are advertising that as an assistant general manager level position.
I should put "hints" in quotes there because reporting shouldn't be about hints. Reporting should be names that can be confirmed and attributed. Avoid hints.
South City Steve: This team needs to bring in a veteran outfielder with some track record of offensive success. I'm so sick of this revolving door of underachieving internal options. I don't want to be upsold on Siani's potential or Nootbaar's underlying metrics, I want one out of the three spots to be filled with offensive certainty.
DG: They do indeed -- if they expect to contend. But, as chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. told me when I asked what the message to fans was and why they avoided the word "rebuild," they're "going young." And that would, to date, seem to nix the notion of making a move for an outfielder to bring known quantity production and daily stability to the position.
And the lineup.
larry harnly: kevin seitzer has been dismissed as the braves' hitting coach. he lives in kansas city. might mo be interested in him as the new hitting coach?
DG: He is going to appear on the short list for teams interested in hitting coaches, for sure. I know that the Cardinals previously vetted him for a possible role and that was, goodness, many years ago. But I do not know if that interest remains. He is considered an excellent hitting coach. Marmol is involved in this process as you can imagine. Also worth noting that Seitzer recently told longtime baseball writer David O'Brien of The Athletic that his wife dealt with a serious medical issue during the season and that was part of the reason he was away from the team, so his interest in returning to the grind would also be a factor.
TigerBoz: Do the Cardinals over value their prospects? If so, is that an attempt to show fans that free agency isn't that important because of the young talent in house? In other words an excuse to not participate much in the free agency game?
DG: Every team but maybe the team run by David Dombrowski overvalues their prospects. Even the Dodgers. That's to be expected. They signed the prospects. They are invested in them, literally and emotionally. That does lead to being protective -- for all teams.
It's not anything sinister or coordinator or misdirecting than that. It's not an excuse. It's just a common trait for all teams.
It wasn't always that way. The Cardinals were once a team that emptied the farm system to add talents like Edmonds, Rolen, McGwire, and so on and so on -- but the game has changed, the industry has changed, owners and analytics have changed, and now that teams are run like hedge funds they're all about risk management you'll see this same approach by most teams.
You know how you know?
Every team talks about maximizing "value" from players, not maximizing production regardless of cost.
Craftyrighthander: Great article about minor league pitching. Will this become a new trend.
DG: It could indeed be a trend if MLB signals strongly that it's going to adopt the rules being discussed that will require and reward starters going deeper into games. Then you're going to see more and more teams do this in the minors so it's not a shock when the pitchers get to the majors.
For the Cardinals, this was about taking a step in a positive direction they thought they could this year. It was something they could do, could benefit from, and emphasize. They did not see it as a solution for the other areas they need to improve in development or areas where they've fallen behind.
If you're interested in that story, it's available here at StlToday.
pugger: Hey Derrick! If the Cardinals are really 'taking a step back' to re-establish the minor league/development side of things, then may we see a little more aggressive stance on trades? Like maybe trading Helsley (and others) for younger (hopefully blue chip) prospects? Or do you think Helsley may be in the plans for them if they can contend in the next 2-3 years? Thanks !
DG: As mentioned above, the Cardinals will take the phone call (or text message or email or meeting) from teams interested in Helsley. They'll explore what they can get in return for the right-hander, and that could start as soon as the GM Meetings in early November. They're going to look into that trade and that return to see if they could get a haul that only accelerates their "reset." That is absolutely something they'll explore.
Brian: Does this team actually need to trade players in order to cut payroll? If they do indeed let Goldschmidt walk (or bring him back at a lower salary), then combine that with Lynn, Gibson, Middleton, that's ~$53mil off the books. Sure, some of that will be eaten by Sonny's salary jump this season, but I'm just not seeing a legit case to move a bunch of players (even Helsley). Especially when the division is totally winnabale -- no, I'm not scared of MIL at all.
DG: They do not. That doesn't mean they won't. The Cardinals, according to John Mozeliak, president of baseball operations, intend to have discussions this month with Gray, Contreras, and Arenado about the approach and about what those players want. Mozeliak told me that it has to be a two-way conversation with them -- not just what the team wants, but whether the players want to be a part of it after coming to the Cardinals to contend. So, sure, the Cardinals could just move on from the expiring contracts/options and cut cost. They could also move these players who want opportunity elsewhere and cut even more ...
SKS: Can the team really sontend with the starting pitching it has? even if they keep Gray, they don't have a #2 or #3 starter.
DG: That presumes they intend to contend.
Mike: I think the 6-inning minimum rule for starters is crazy. I like the idea of tying the starter to the DH, but requiring an ineffective pitcher to just continue to throw seems strange. The point is competition...and this seems to require pitchers to throw regardless of the situation on the field.
DG: You didn't ask, but I tend to agree. For the same reasons, I don't like the three-batter minimum -- call it the Genesis Cabrera Example -- I am against mandating a starter get pulverized or tenderized for a minimum number of innings. Hitching the starter to the DH is a cool strategy element that I do like if ... if ... big-if ... they feel compelled to do anything at all about the starting pitchers. I don't feel all that strongly about such inning-req rules.
Andrew W: Hi Derrick,Last week some brought up the book Team of Rivals. I鈥檝e long thought the Cardinals organization from 2004 to 2011 were very much a team of rivals. As you and others reported, there were divergent opinions between traditionalists and change agents within the organization, and some of those involved didn鈥檛 necessarily like each other. You鈥檙e more aware than I with respect to factions within the Cardinals during that period, but it seems to me that the internal rivalry fostered a creative tension that led to the organization being greater than the sum of its parts. Then after so many key people left in 2011, there was less internal tension, and the organization gradually became more collegial and eventually more complacent. Does this theory have merit?(PS I thought Mo did a great job handling that tension during that period.)
DG: There's probably something to it -- especially because that is what DeWitt wanted to create. He didn't call it a collegial group, but he wanted that continuity, consistency, etc. etc.
What needs to be added to that theory, however, is the people who left -- and were part of the collegial group -- and were not replaced. A key part of the cohesion you describe was the former players who were in positions of leadership or contribution, and many of those positions were downsized and not replaced. Also, the Cardinals have been going without a field coordinator, as you know, for awhile.
I like what you've described here about creative clashes -- the old iron sharpens iron, but that does mean sometimes the iron has to collide with iron to sharpen. But the added element of vacant positions seems important here.
Millo Miller: Derrick, watching Saggesse this past September, it seems he does have the arm to play SS or 3rd. He seems more like a 2nd baseman who could give you spot starts at short and 3rd. His defense at 2nd was better than I expected. Is this how the Cardinals view him?
DG: Yes.
Mr Boondy: I dont feel like the Cardinals will truly be a world series contender until there is new ownership. An engaged owner who values the Cardinals history and will invest in all levels to get it back there is needed. The Dewitts are not that.
DG: I hear what you're saying. But it sure seems like maybe the issue you want to focus that criticism on is the present and the future. When it comes to the Cardinals history, the DeWitts have proven to be good stewards of it, from the Hall of Fame to the museum, to fighting for individual threads on the revamped jerseys, etc. There are many examples of where they do care and revere the history of the team. Just as there are many examples of how engaged they are. Those come from other owners and MLB officials, not people with the Cardinals. Refocus the argument on investing in the present and future, and then build your criticism out from there.
U R ON THE INTERNET BUDDY: I understand a lot of (most?) fans want to move on from Mozeliak, but as you've reported for years - most on-field/personnel decisions are made as a consensus among the front office and ownership. If that's the case, can fans truly expect any tangible philosophical changes?
DG: Ownership has to be open to it. And that was definitely in the answers at the press conference -- that they were open to it. The question was asked of Bloom, DeWitt, and Mozeliak about whether or not the money was going to be there to substantially change the direction of the organization. A specific example? Spending on coaches. Prices have gone up. Competition for the best coaches is real. The Cardinals have not kept pace with rivals. Will they? Ownership says it's ready to do that. Same with tech. Now, actions will reveal. But it does take ownership's willingness to lead that change, you're right.
Joe B: In the book "Winning Fixes Everything" it was reported that when Luhnow left for the Astros, he took a lot of folks with him -- enough so that ownership had to step up and ask them to stop. Did the Cardinals ever recover from that brain drain?
DG: To be fair, the Post-Dispatch reported on that in real time as it happened from 2011-2012. The late Joe Strauss and I had several articles on that drain, and even that Mozeliak confronted Luhnow at least once about trying to lure staff to Houston. One of the executives that Mozeliak stepped in on was as the Astros attempted to recruit Chris Correa away from the Cardinals. That's all been covered by the Post-Dispatch, and there were some significant losses for the Cardinals at that time.
Arguably none bigger than Brent Strom.
They've had time to recover from that, and they did. Kantrovitz
returned to the Cardinals, and that helped. Jeff Albert came from the Astros to the Cardinals, and there are examples on this past year's team for how he helped set up the development of hitters for the benefit of the Cardinals. I think more than 10 years later, the departure of Luhnow has gained legendary status beyond the facts that followed. I'm not sure why he's such a romantic figure in Cardinals lore on social media.
There were others who should be just as celebrated and missed even more, and still should not be pined for 10 years later.
Max: Cool to see my question from last week referenced here (Team of Rivals). That is more along the lines of what I was getting at. Continuity doesn't necessarily have to mean collegiality. Differing opinions is a good thing and if you aren't always questioning that what you're doing is right, it's easy to be left behind.
DG: That is true in more arenas than just baseball.
I think it's a reach to say it's the only reason or even the biggest reason the Cardinals are where they are. But, yes, getting outside voices is something they benefited from, and I stand by the fact that it was a fair question six, seven years ago on whether consistency risked stagnation.
Max:聽"There were others who should be just as celebrated." Who would that be? Sig?
DG: Sig Mejdal also would be on that list, for sure. He's been a big part of two tank-to-triumph ... there in Houston and now currently with Baltimore.
CapePorpoise: If you watched it, did you see any change in Flaherty鈥檚 approach last night versus his Cardinal years?
DG: His velocity was down. But let's not bring up that whole thing again, ok? He has that wicked slider and a good feel for pitching, so a lot of the same, really.
DDWIS: What鈥檚 your take on the Pohlads indicating they will sell the Twins? What could that mean for that market?
DG: I don't really have a "take." It will give us another example of how much a team is worth when it's sold, if it's sold. That will good to know, because it's far more real and tangible than the yearly estimates.
Awalk: Derrick, thank you for your insight into the organization and your continued commitment to bring us unbiased reporting regarding the Cardinals.
DG: Thank you. I'll continue to do the best I can offer.
Scott Stewart: Who more than Lunhow? As his influence faded, a sense of content mediocrity overtook ownership and management.
DG: Did it? Because I don't know. I seem to recall the years that followed differently, and it's only recently that he's getting credit for many things he a) wasn't involved in or b) was only a part of. Did he help the Cardinals? Absolutely. He brought in an outside perspective and yanked the Cardinals into a modern model that helped them create a formidable player development program and farm system. But he did not do it alone. He raised the Cardinals up and deserves a lot of credit for doing that, and doing exactly what DeWitt hired him to do. And along the way he learned and innovated and he also stood on the shoulders of history and of others. He collaborated with influential people like Mejdal, Girsch, Strom, Shildt, Elias, Rodriguez, Campo, Vuch, Slater, Mozeliak, a handful of the analytics hires who are still with the Cardinals, and on and on and on and all of this is public information and all of this should not be overlooked. And some of them are still with the Cardinals -- which maybe is their mistake. Maybe they would be celebrated here if they left. Best career move Luhnow ever made, apparently.
South City Steve: What happened to Mo鈥檚 summer of self-awareness? Back in May he seemed to grasp that the fan base had had enough of him being the face of the team. At the presser it felt almost like he showed up in defiance of the fans鈥 wishes.
DG: Was that your name for his summer, or was that his? I know that he has acknowledged a few times that the fans may be tired of hearing from him. That leads me to believe that maybe -- stay with me here -- it wasn't about the fans.
Ken M: Does Victor Scott ll receive 500 AB in 2025? If so, is he the minor league base burglar version or the much less impressive major league speedster?
DG: Entirely possible -- but not guaranteed at the moment. There are members of the Cardinals that are billing Siani as the starter going into the season there in center field and set for the long run at the position. Others want to clear the way for Scott to compete for that spot. It's going to be something to watch -- probably in spring more than winter, honestly, unless there is a trade that makes the decision for the Cardinals.
A question I asked during this past spring training that is related to your question is this, and you're all welcome to chime in: What OBP could Scott have that makes him a star? That of course counts on him stealing with the aggressiveness and ability he has, and then turning that OBP into the extra bases he can take. So, to your larger point, yes, more time on base and more at-bats to get on base will lead to more aggressive and more steals from him. That's a major part of his game that will arrive in the majors with the playing time and OBP to unlock it.
Mike: Are the Cardinals as far away from contending as they'd like us to believe? While the "winning season" comment from BDW at the press conference was a bit tone deaf, it's not like we're in a terrible spot. We added pitching from 23 to 24 and improved by 12 wins. Arguably the pitching added more than that and the lackluster offense took some away. Solve the offense... add 8 wins... and we're right there at 91 for the season. I'm just not understanding the Chicken Little stance. Things need to change...but we aren't the White Sox.
DG: They don't have to be, and they are not. It sure seems like their concern is that they are close to contending, but they're parked on a hill and they forgot to engage the parking the brake and risk falling behind before they get to the top.
Ken M: Can you explain the Mike Girsch role in the past and moving forward? I thought he was the GM, but he was almost invisible to fans, and when transactions occurred Mo spoke to the press.
DG: I can. I have many many many many times before. And yet it doesn't seem to make a difference in the conversation.
I feel like I'm shouting into the wind at this point.
But I'll try again.,
Throughout baseball we saw a shift upward in titles if not responsibilities throughout the front offices. To put the leader of baseball operations on the same level as the leader of business operations, teams created the President of Baseball Operations. You may call from 20 years ago that the Cardinals had a president of the team (Lamping) and a general manager (Jocketty). These were not the same level of jobs, even if they had the same level of public awareness. So, executives like Epstein, Mozeliak, and others sought to be president of baseball operations for the same level of title. Twenty years ago the Cardinals had one assistant general manager, as an example, and now they have a handful. It's the same reason why Tony La Russa could create his own title to lead Arizona's baseball operations, and he went with CBO, akin to CFO or CEO. And yet he was in the same spot as POBO for many teams and GMs for some teams.
OK, so at no point was Mozeliak not the leader of the Cardinals' front office and baseball operations, even as the traditional "GM" title went to Michael Girsch.
As GM, Michael Girsch oversaw everything from negotiating for trades (Montgomery comes to mind) to finalizing contracts, which he did. He also had a network of connections throughout the game to help facilitate deals. He saw and guided the expansion of the Cardinals'' analytics department, which is much larger than when he took over at GM. He hosted press conferences and did all sorts of public appearances, and in 2020 he was doing more of those things -- and Mozeliak said he wanted to fade some from public requirements -- and then the pandemic hit. And then the Cardinals had an outbreak. And Mozeliak returned to be the spokesman for the team and give it that one voice, and it really hasn't changed in the years since.
If you want to know more and hear from Girsch about his role and some of the things he did, there was a podcast interview I did with him in 2022, and you can still catch it here.
Andy in Swansea: Do the Cardinals view Matthew Liberatore as the next Andrew Miller? There seems to be some resemblances there in terms of career arc.
DG: That possibility has been discussed, yes. That comp has come up.
Jojo Disco: True or false: there is an indisputable correlation between Mo鈥檚 accumulation of organizational power and the slow unraveling of this franchise?
DG: False
(That ought to really kick this thing into high gear.)
DoubleDownon11: Looks like Jimmy Crooks nabbed the organization's minor league player of the year award for 2024. Appears the Cardinals have gone from a lack of organizational depth at the catcher's position from late in Molina's tenure to a crowd. Going to make for perhaps an underrated story going through the offseason.
DG: Agreed.
Andy in Swansea: How is it that we seems to have an endless parade of catching prospects the past several years? We鈥檙e already 3-deep in the Majors and Crooks is only a year or two away鈥
DG: Drafting, international signing, scouting, and development. Catching has been a success story, and some of the credit should definitely go to the players, too. Pedro Pages has put in the work in the offseason to enhance his place as a prospect and now a big leaguer. And so on. But, yes, despite some criticism floating out there about the Cardinals' catching situation, this is actually an area of success and growth for the team.
Aaron Knopf: Earlier you referenced the cutting of organizational roles as the source of some of the team鈥檚 current struggles. How much did loss of two places for young players to learn (Johnson City, Batavia) have an impact?
DG: For sure it did. That's part of it. All that happened played a part. Just don't overlook the biggest things that played a part.
A pandemic erased a season for all minor leaguers.
The Cardinals cut staff, downsized during that pandemic, just as many businesses (including my own and maybe yours) did. And then the Cardinals did not fill some of those positions that were trimmed.
The Cardinals made the choice to aggressively promote players for 2021, and it did not work. The pitching cratered. They had the highest overall ERA and one of the worst winning percentages in the history of the modern minor-league system.
They did not have a first round pick in the 2017 draft due to penalties for the hacking scandal. They also are unlikely to produce an impact player from that draft, and they have not traded any players taken in that draft for an impact player. That's a draft that would not be benefitting them -- and it's not.
So, yes, it's all of those things. The reduction of the affiliates, and other things. But there are also tangible, big reasons -- several listed above -- that contributed more to what has happened than the smaller things that keep coming up.
Mike: If there is one thing the Cardinals know how to do...it's catching. We've had a prospect and pipeline a mile long dating all the way back to the Pagnozzi days.
DG: And yet they had to go sign a free agent to take over at catcher when Molina retired.
Brian: Thanks Derrick. I'm just floored that this F.O. now seems to equate spending with contending, especially when there's teams spending less than them and making the postseason (MIL, CLE, DET), their past spending hasn't made them all that competitive, and the current bracket makes getting in easier than ever. Count me among those who think it's the wrong move to write off an entire season -- and potentially move valuable players as a result -- 7 months before the first game is played.
DG: So noted. And not to mention the year right in the prime for a few players they are going to hitch the turnaround onto.
U R ON THE INTERNET BUDDY: Have the Cardinals indicated whether Bloom will assume Mo's role of team spokesperson when he takes over as president of baseball operations?
DG: That is, yes, part of the role and its responsibilities.
Johnny Mo: One thing that I don't think has been mentioned is that even if the Cardinals do "sell", a lot of rebuilding teams take a one year flyer on a guy to see if he can rebuild value and be a potential trade piece. Do you see the Cardinals going this route if they do trade Gray/Contreras/Arenado/Helsely. Thinking guys like Walker Buehler.
DG: I don't think you can count on Buehler taking a one-year deal. If anything, this adds to the reason to pick up the option for Gibson. That's the one-year deal. That's the player who could provide early and be traded in the middle, right? You are exactly correct that it would be wise for the Cardinals to look at deals like this, for sure. Like the Pirates with Aroldis Chapman.
Only don't do what the Pirates did and not trade Aroldis Chapman.
Lu: As odd as it may sound, I'm really excited about being a cardinals fan currently. It feels like the start of a new era. We've talked so much about the bear case for the team over the last few weeks, could you explore the bull case?
DG: I like the way you phrased this bear/bull. Well done.
The bull case: The Cardinals create opportunity that they haven't for young players to receive patience and grow through it, and as a result those young players thrive and start becoming impact talents in the next 12 months, maybe even hang in there as a team that contends in 2025, maybe. But it certainly is a team with a young, rising, proven core that is set to contend in 2026 and then gets the spending to outfit a robust roster around it. That's the bull. The bull is that the Cardinals time their next burst of spending beyond their market with a team that isn't lopsided, but balanced with young players, and an organization that is rich with pitching depth to supplement when needed. And that is one scenario that ownership described -- that they would harmonize the spending with the contender that they believe a focus on this younger team can produce. It's words until they do it, but if you want to be bullish that's the reason.
It would be the kind of organization/team that it would be fascinating to see Chaim Bloom run: One with the structure of the Rays, the history at its back and expectations of the Red Sox, and the ability (as the Cardinals have) to spend above their market and acquire a star or two that pushes them back toward the front of the NL.
Mike: Gray, Fedde, Gibson, McGreevy, and [Pallante, Graceffo, Matz] seems like a decent rotation to build on heading into 2025.
DG: Fedde and Matz -- two other starters the Cardinals could move at the deadline if this season goes that route.
JTG:: Speaking of the wealth of catching talent the Cardinals have, was it a surprise that two of their, what, top 6 picks last summer were... more catchers?
DG: Not at all. MLB draft is about the best available, not filling out rosters. And best available can become the best prospects, and best prospects can become contributors or trade pieces.
ICCFIM: A lot of folks seem to have annointed Burleson or Walker as the next 1B. Where does Herrera stand in this hierarchy? His bat seems to play and he is still very young? Where do the Cardinals view Pages upside at, starting catcher? His bat seemed to improve a lot as the season wore on. Does Contreras fit within the window during his contract or do Herrera, Pages and the emerging Crooks make him a valuable trade chip?
DG: Sure seems like Burleson and Baker should be the conversation at 1B with Herrera in the mix somewhere after them and ahead of the right fielder. And Contreras up there, too. The question to address is whether any of them have the bat that carries that position, or if the Cardinals will have the offense (read: power) coming from elsewhere to make that work. I don't know if "a lot of folks" are anointing Jordan Walker as the first baseman. Let's see if the Cardinals do, and if they do they'll have to explain why their stance has been that his longterm fit for defense is in the outfield, not at the busiest corner in the infield.
Pages has forced his way into the conversation as part of a shared catching position, and Crooks is on the way along with Bernal. It's just possible that the Cardinals do not have a 130 game catcher anymore, or not in the near future. And they need two to split the role, or three to give depth.
There are two things that will shape the catching decisions in the coming 6 months.
What does Willson Contreras want as the Cardinals advertise this shift?
How does Ivan Herrera being out of minor-league options influence the roster and what kind of offers the Cardinals get for their young catcher?
Eric D: With all of the first-year managers that made the playoffs, do you think that is coincidence? Or is the shelf life of a MLB manager shorter now because of the more frequent need a fresh voice?
DG: It's shorter now. And it's also an example of how teams have a manager see them through the build and then a new manager take over for the breakthrough. We'll watch to see how that happens with Cincinnati, what's next for Baltimore, and so on.
CardsFan_Rev: Derrick, Can you go more in depth on how this transition will happen? Mo said Bloom will be included in any conversations regarding the future, but who has the final say on moves now? Let鈥檚 say there are 2-3 offers for a Gray/Contreras trade. I think based on track record Mo and Bloom would have differing opinions on what package they鈥檇 want back. Can you give some insight on this?
DG: Mozeliak will lead baseball operations for the next season, for about the next 11 months. He will have that responsibility. The buck will stop with him. He said he will include Bloom in any conversations that shape the future of the team, the team that Bloom is set to inherit, and that no decision for beyond 2025 will be made without Bloom's input or influence because it directly impacts the team/organization he will run.
I get the sense that people position this as one person making a decision. If there is one person making a decision it's the owner.
That is true for major decisions.
If it's a decision on who is being promoted from the minors, and there isn't consensus on who that is, then Mozeliak makes the call. But all other significant moves are usually made with consensus.
Trades? Consensus.
Signings? Consensus.
When the Cardinals made the bid to sign Sonny Gray or Willson Contreras it was not one person pressing go on the decision, it was a group coming to an agreement on their interest and what they intended to offer, and that group ran from the manager (the interest) to the owner (what he was willing to spend), and Mozeliak and his staff acted upon that consensus agreement.
Not much is going to change there, except that there will be a new voice that has a sizeable volume. Bloom spent the past year listening to these conversations. Now he'll be an active participant in shaping them.
Ed AuBuchon: "The Bat Plays" seems like the team isn't putting players in the right position in the minors. Why Walker wasn't moved to another position the day the Arenado trade was made is baffling.
DG: It's a fine point, but to me it's why it didn't happen before then, like in 2020, even. Because if you're tying to to Arenado, there is an easy out for the team and easy explanation.
Arenado had an opt out. He could leave after that season, if you recall, and then what? Sure seems like Nolan Gorman is the better example here for moving Walker to the position scouts thought he would gravitate toward eventually.
St Louis Browns 764: Do you know whatever happened to the yearly "Daryl Like Award"? It was such a great honor that the players loved, but it has not been announced in three years. Is it still given out?
DG: The local chapter of the 最新杏吧原创 Baseball Writers Association of America administers and awards that honor, and it has been given every year I've been here, including the past three. And it will be given out again this coming January at the annual baseball writers' dinner. The players have already voted and selected a peer to win it for this past season.
Steven Matz won it for 2023.
milyabe: Derrick, great article about the innings goal for minor league starters. I was really interested to hear about the pitching coach zoom calls that Dusty instituted. Sounds like they've been very positive. It's there similar vertical integration on the hitting side?
DG: There has been previously, yes. Similar if not a Zoom or exactly the same. That is something that Jeff Albert brought in, and it's continued in some fashion since he left.
Lu: Gosh, imagine the TV stuff getting sorted out heading into the 2026 season.
DG: Sure seems like it needs to be figured out before then. And there's another big factor in this situation for the Cardinals.
Andrew W: I can't help but think that Cardinals fans are lucky that a bankruptcy judge blocked Bill DeWitt Jr's from buying the Baltimore Orioles in 1993. The trajectory of the Cards with the DeWitts and O's under the Angeloses since then have been wildly different. (Granted the O's play in a tougher neighborhood, but the AL East isn't the cause of 100-loss seasons,)
DG: Interesting history lesson. Thank you for dropping in some context.
Red-less October: Since I'm a fan of the minor leagues and prospect development a Cardinals "reset" doesn't anger me but gives me hope for a higher upside future. However, the thought of losing the combo of Sonny Gray and Ryan Helsley (and even Fedde and/or Gibson!) from the pitching staff frightens me. Losing these gentlemen will create a world where the Cardinals club can easily bottom out. The prospects acquired in a trade would be nice, but the potential for calamity next summer would be real. In my opinion, a Sonny Gray trade brings an incredible amount of risk. Deep down inside, can you actually envision a Gray trade happening this offseason?
DG: Deep down inside? I'm not sure I have to go all that deep to see it happening because the Cardinals themselves have brought up the possibility that Gray would like to chase contending elsewhere. The Cardinals have said he has control over that, and that he has a say in whether they pursue a trade.
All of the things you outline are risks, especially the "bottoming out" of innings and what that would mean in the standings. That's real. And at some point the Cardinals are going to have to confront this question.
Is it better for the young players to develop while also emphasizing winning -- which they did for years in the minors as an organization and felt it was positive -- or is it OK to risk a precipitous drop in the name of development?
pugger: I think if Siani ends up getting the bulk of playing time in CF, then they would have to 'bake in' the hope that guys around him would have much much better years (Walker, Nootbar, etc etc) to carry Siana, as he really never has profiled as much of a hitter. Why not just see what they have in Scott, as he could be a game changing/dynamic player for them.. But, he's gotta play, get reps to find out
DG: That is correct. The lineup would have to compensate with enough production that it can carry a glove (or two) and still produce and anything offensive from those spots is a bonus, lagniappe, not a deciding factor.
Mark: One can see why the Cardinals are in such a mess. Check out Stubby Clapp's great 2017 Memphis Redbirds club which ended 40 games over .500. All those stars were traded away. That is the crux the current Cardinals mess.
DG: That's certainly a compelling premise. The starters standout as members of that 91-50 team that were traded. Of course that group includes Flaherty, Weaver, and Gonzales, and then there's Gallen who made four starts for the Redbirds that season. Brebbia, Sherriff, and Ponce de Leon were part of the bullpen. As far as position players, O'Neill had 37 games for Memphis that year and hit 12 homers, and ahead of him in at-bats and games were team leaders like Wisdom, Bader, Voit, and then DeJong and also Carson Kelly. So, pretty strong group of prospects and also performance. I don't have the time here in the chat to dig into how many clubs have many players from their 2017 affiliate for context, or to see if the limited number is all that unusual. The return probably is.
Bryan C: In Hochman's article, October used to be magical where he talked about Luke. If the younger people like Luke have not experienced the fun of a real race for the World Series Championship, not just trying to get in the wild card, will they keep interest in baseball? How will this rebuild and the younger people not coming to the ball park affect ballpark village and game attendance?
DG: Oh, there are many ways to become a fan of baseball beyond the success of a team. A fan can emerge from playing the game. A fan can emerge from being fond one particular exciting or personally appealing player. A fan can emerge from baseball cards, or video games, or the experience of going to a game. A fan can emerge from the green of the grass and the taste of a hot dog, and the cheers of the crowd for a moment that might decide a game between two teams that are both under .500, but the fan doesn't know that, because the fan is new to the game and didn't check the standings before coming to the game, just came to the game and felt this tremendous amount of tension and then a euphoric response. That is what the new fan experienced. There are many ways to become a fan. Sustained contention might be how you became a fan, but there are a dozen other teams out there with fans just as devoted who haven't had that, and they are fans all the same of the game because there are so many reasons to enjoy baseball.
There isn't one doorway that all fans take, or one doorway that determines the most devoted fans.
There are no doorways at all, only routes.
Capstone: Who backs up Wynn at SS and does Carpenter stay on the roster; veteran voice, but production is iffy at best.
DG: TBD. On both fronts.
Dan: What's the future of a guy like Koperniak, OF in AAA? He seems to hit wherever he goes
DG: Likely to get a chance with another organization. There is a scenario where he comes to Cardinals spring training and tries to make noise there, and it would be great if he did. Seasons like he has had should be rewarded, and the limited September callups are likely why they haven't been.
Ryan: Would tieing Fedde to a Helsley deal make sense for a greater return? Helsley alone isn鈥檛 going to bring a wow return.
DG: Helsley alone should bring a wow return. I cannot speak to what you consider a wow return, but it would be significant based on the industry perception/standards.
Bryan C: Have Bill and Mo said about what the 2025 Cardinal payroll will be?
DG: They have not. They do not know.
The Bally Sports limbo persists.
CapePorpoise: Did I miss it, or did the post season wrap fail to indicate any concern in the team about the difficulties most of the most touted prospects are having once they hit the major league?
DG: That was an overarching theme of the season and any post-season wrap. It's been a major topic of coverage and conversation -- no pun intended -- for more than a year now, and there were elements of the presser that addressed that area of concern for the Cardinals.
Robert: Hello Mr. Gould: Fantastic answer describing the different ways people become fans of the game.
DG: Thank you. I am a huge fan of baseball -- and think the news of its demise is as annual and predictable as it is laughable and exaggerated.
JL: Maybe the Cards are as hush, hush as the writers are but wondering if there is some talk about what to do with Jordan Walker. He looks HORRIBLE in right field. With possible vacancies at 3rd and first, I'm really wondering if Jordan can play defense much better in there than he does in the outfield. I fear there is a problem with slow hands, hand/eye, just plain quickness, or why he looks so bad in the OF. I know from playing experience some people just can not judge a flyball. He costs us outs, runs and sometimes ballgames in RF. He has spent ample time "learning". It AIN'T WORKIN!!!!!
DG: "As hush, hush as the writers"? What does that even mean. It's an odd thing to say when this chat -- quite literally above this answer -- there are at least two discussions about defense and Jordan Walker playing the outfield. Maybe your experience in the field is different than the major-league scouts and coaches, but ... the infield is hard. And I'm not talking about the surface.
Though, at some ballparks, I am also talking about the surface.
There is notion called the defensive spectrum, and it goes from the most difficult positions to play (catcher, shorter) to the least difficult (DH, first base, etc), though I would argue that it needs another look at the first base positioning. Why? Two words: Jose Martinez. It wasn't that long ago that the Cardinals and outfielder at first base, led the league in errors there, acquired Paul Goldschmidt, and radically improved the defense and won five Gold Gloves. I'm leaving out a few things for dramatic effect, but you get the gist of what I'm saying here. There's a chances element to the defensive spectrum. Would you like to know the difference in chances?
When ranking fielders by total chances, the top 34 players are all first basemen -- so more first basemen than there are teams handling more chances than any other player on the field. The top 11 have more than 1,000 total chances.
As far as right fielders go, they are led by Juan Soto it appears, and the other members of the top 11 all have fewer than 300 total chances.
You tell me where you'd like a player new to a position and learning it.
Or is that too hush, hush?
DT: I think ownership has a responsibility to put a contending team on the field and make the necessary investments and adjustments to improve the long term health of the franchise. If that means parting with some of their equity interest to raise cash, that's up to them. Why do fans seem so quick to accept this either or approach?
DG: I don't get the sense that fans, writ large, are accepting. But that depends I guess on where you want to go for your fan opinion. The chat tends to bend negative. Social media tends to bend sensational.
Not sure about Reddit or message boards. But each place has its accepted tone and in some arenas they drum out disagreement.
Joliet Dave: Is there a deadline on when or if Diamond:Bally will/won鈥檛 be broadcasting Cards game or if the Cards start their own or MLB takes them over?
DG: There is not -- but there is direction coming on that in mid-November. That is a deadline that will give the industry greater clarity overall, or if Diamond Sports is going to liquidate, etc.
JL: My apologies sir. I just don't have the time I would like to devote to reading chats, but I read most all your articles and I may have missed your article regarding your opinion about Jordan's future. I will go back through this window and find those comments.
DG: Thank you. I've not really shared my opinion on the matter -- not beyond what my reporting can support. But it's been a recurring topic around here (in coverage, in chats, in columns) for more than a year, and I know my colleagues have written multiple articles.
Mark: Lower the payroll and give younger players an opportunity I don't have much of a problem with right now. However, seeing how things are going when it is time to pay Winn, Donavan, Burleson, Walker, and Victor Scott II will management pay them or will they cry about being a small market team and let them walk? Crying about being a small market team only goes so far. With ticket sales, merchandise, ballpark village they would be able to afford to pay those players when it is time, but will they?
DG: Merchandise is shared revenue. So the Cardinals benefit from Ohtani jersey sales just as the Yankees do, and the Dodgers do from Arenado and Soto jersey sales, etc. Those are shared.
So you're saying the fans are going to come back and ticket sales will go up?
(Aside: Keeping talent and signing extensions will be a pillar of what they're building, just as it's been part of their past history, too. That is clear. And the reason is to lock in expense, cost certainty, and to guarantee security in exchange for value. So, it actually fits the model, whether they say it's a small market model or a lean, mean development machine model. Don't give them that out.)
Robert: Mr Gould, Do you expect the Twins potential sale to be significantly, moderately, or not at all affected by the TV rights situation? Will the sale (assuming it happens) portend more serious issues facing ownership as it pertains to team values?
DG: Fascinating question, and I wish I knew. Yes, absolutely the TV revenue will play a part in the sale -- but it could make the Twins more appealing because they're out from under the contract, they have the brave new world available to them and possibly sooner than other teams, like the Cardinals. That might be part of the appeal of the Twins. On 60 Minutes last night, the owner of the Clippers was asked about spending $2 billion on that team, which was considered a "depressed" asset in need of a new owner now, and he scoffed at that idea. Rightfully so. Why? There are 30 NBA. There are two in LA, and only a few in markets that same size. Supply is limited. The resource is rare. Demand is going to be high. Just how high. And I think that's where you're question heads -- and remains fascinating. How high?
Jeremy C.: I don't know if this has come up before, but have the DeWitt's discussed their own succession plan, when BD Jr. would step down as Chairman, and III takes over? Based on optics, it doesn't appear to be a long time in the future (with all due respect). Is BD III committed to keeping family ownership going multi-generationally, or would he be more intrigued as to what cashing out would mean? Is he interested in being the "final boss" with regards to baseball decisions?
DG: They have. During an hourlong interview with two reporters from the Post-Dispatch earlier this season, Cardinals president Bill DeWitt III discussed the goal, though he declined to go into details. He has said there is a time to do that, however.
This is that story.
Also of note in there is his view that Busch III could be a century stadium.
JL: Well, a point would be, if a player is hitting 300, ya maybe Mr. Walker is good enough in RF. Or somewhere! Maybe his size hinders him too much at ML level. There is reason one doesn't see too many MLB (position) players his size. If they are talented they become pitchers, as my brother in law Bob Forsch did. I read some (I guess not enough) but just interested in any inside scoop on plans Mr. Walker with the pending "revamping".
DG: That's a fair question and no one is keeping it hush, hush. They're outspoken about it. They're plan has been and remains to help him become a better outfielder, at the moment. Two of the players his size who are currently in the game have been outfielders, not first baseman. Aaron Judge plays center for the Yankees. Giancarlo Stanton played right field until injuries have really positioned him as a DH. Adam Dunn, another player Walker's size, played 1,100 games in the outfield and 500 at first base. Another player that size, Frank Howard, didn't have the DH to play, so he spent 1,400 games of his career in the outfield. He played first 334 games.
I'm not sure what else to say here.
Greg: If Arenado and Gray ask out, I'm okay with it as long as we get something we need for building. I'd put Gorman on third .... it may inspire him to hit better. Walker needs to spend the winter catching baseballs in right field. Would you keep Goldy for one more year? Even if he hit 20 homers and 10 more doubles?
DG: This is not an outlandish scenario at all. Gorman at third is a possibility, though Donovan is probably the more likely option if they don't need him in the outfield, and there is a genuine hope from the Cardinals that they don't need him in the outfield. There is a strong argument for the Cardinals to bring back Goldschmidt, but it's going to take the market moving them back together and other considerations on his part.
Francisco Lindor 1, Dodgers yet to bat.
NLCS Game 2 underway.
Joliet Dave: Will Goldie be offered a gualifying offer?
DG: I don't believe so, based on what I have been told from sources. But I do reserve the right to circle back with them in the near future to see if the Cardinals have learned anything this month that suggest they might try to snag a draft pick there. The Cardinals have expressed a wish to accumulate draft picks, and I want to see if that conversation has taken them to a new view of the QO since I last checked.
Capstone: Which is a more likely direction for Cards and starting pitching, if both Lynn and Gibson are not offered contracts: count on internal options with low-cost addition from trade or free agency; get one #2 or #3 starter (probable high cost); go after Wacha and pitchers like that ($12-13 million range, but if so is that an upgrade over Gibson); Wo covers innings in 2025 and who is most ready of the youngsters for that role?
DG: This is a great question, a clear and present question for the Cardinals who -- given the setup that you provided where the two veterans are free agents -- are likely to follow the first option there. Internal options. Lower-cost additions. Which invites the question on why would they decline the option on Gibson only to try and go find a cheaper version of Gibson in the marketplace? They'd be in a spot possibly to try and sign this offseasons Erick Fedde, as an example.
EddieMac: Have you spoken to anyone in Tampa or Boston about Bloom, why he succeeded, why he failed? What's the overall impression from your contatcs regarding him? Thanks!
DG: I have, several times throughout the past year and, honestly, even before the Cardinals officially hired Bloom. Two of the reporters I've spoken to were kind enough to give me their time on the Best Podcast in Baseball, and those episodes with Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe and Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times are both still available here on this site or wherever you get your podcasts.
The recurring impression from people is how detail-oriented, incisive, and approachable Bloom is, with many people complimenting how much they enjoyed working with him or talking to him. Very analytical and patient are other description. There is also the topic that comes up a lot about how they wish he would have had a better situation in Boston, one that did not put him behind even before he starter. Of course, the pandemic was a part of that -- it came in his first spring training, and it came quite soon after he started working with the staff that was in place. Not to mention the Betts deal that would be difficult for any executive to overcome in a short window, if ever, and that's all with just following ownership's demand. So, that comes up a lot -- that there are peers and people who would like to see what Bloom does with out the restrictions of his previous spots.
Joliet Dave: Somewhere recently I read a Boston writer expects Tyler Oneil to get a huge contract. Upwards of 30 million. I just don鈥檛 see it
DG: Good news: You'll both get a chance to see who is right.
JoJo Disco: Do you think the off-season strategy/outlook would be different if Mikolas and Matz were coming off the books this winter too?
DG: Not really.
St Louis Browns 764: Since it took so long for the Cardinals to enjoy a solid closer in Ryan Helsley, if they decide to move him, who is expected to take the role? Is there anyone in the system that you think can get us 35+ saves next year? Is there any free agent possibilities that would give us 35+ saves? If there is not, then why trade Ryan Helsley?
DG: It's most likely that the Cardinals, given their current setup, go with a closer by committee, or closer by matchup, and there's not one closer getting 35 saves, rather a group of pitchers who are splitting whatever saves the team has, and you could see 18 going to a lefty (or two) and another 14 going to a righty, and so on. That's how the roster is currently set up should they move Helsley.
Andrew W: If I remember correctly, the Cardinals retained their streaming rights and had only sold their broadcast/cable rights in the current (most recent) TV deal. If that is indeed the case, given their very public concerns about the stability of their revenue from that deal with Diamond, why haven't they develop a streaming service already? At the very least, it could generate additional revenue. Was there a provision the broadcast deal preventing it (like some sort of non-compete clause)?
DG: Something like that, and it's a good way to kind of boil it down. They have an ownership stake in their broadcast partner, and thus they have an interest and a partnership in the development of any streaming service. The Cardinals maintained their rights to it, but those are somewhat in limbo as they worked out and sought a vehicle to develop and then deliver that service. They want to do so without the limits of blackouts, and that is still not possible with the current broadcast deals. So they're working to be able to launch that direct-to-consumer app as soon as 2025, and it is a priority for them. And they can move fast to do so, in part because they've maintained it. But introducing it now, is tricky given the existing broadcast contract and their stake in Bally.
Joliet Dave: If a player accepts this years QO, can the player and team immediately turn it in a 2 year offer for say another 5mil, which would be $12,5 a year roughly? Or are there rules governing that?
DG: The qualifying offer is a binding contract. And it sets a year salary at $21 million. Any reduction of that salary greater than 20% in terms of an extension requires the player to become a free agent, so no.
JL: You have said plenty sir and comments are appreciated as well as points brought up about the handful of players of Mr. Walker's stature. I will keep reading and keep being a huge Cardinal fan. As well as a fan of yours Mr. Gould. Just not sure what to do with Jordan Walker! I don't have an answer either. Thank you sir.
DG: Thank you. The Cardinals have coaches they've hired to get that answer, so it's up to them and most of all up to Jordan Walker, who has shown that he's up to put in the effort and time.
Grand slam Mets. OMG.
Happy in St Charles: Baseball is hard. Is it really that inconceivable that learning a new position in the major leagues is hard? That it might be several seasons before there are enough in game repetitions to get to average?
DG: Well said.
Max: "Grand slam Mets. OMG." well we saw how quickly the Dodgers came back after San Diego went up big.
DG: Your statement has been posted so that you can brag if it happens. Flaherty's start all the more important to the Dodgers now.
pugger: Regarding Walker, he really seems to struggle at laying off that outside pitch.. Crucial that he figures that out.. In your estimation, how does a player stop doing that? Reps in a batting cage with a coach standing there? A mental coach working thru him to relax and stay focused on pitches that are in a certain zone? Not sure how that changes. Thanks D
DG: Reps. Experience. Pitch recognition. However the batter works on that on best. For some, it's working with virtual reality, for some it's watching video, for some it's all of that and being in the box in games, and for some they can get out of that habit in the cage with a pitching machine and so on. There are many tools at a hitters disposal to work on that. And it takes time.
Mike: "And yet they had to go sign a free agent to take over at catcher when Molina retired." Had to? I think we've seen that Herrera or Pages could have handled it. (And did handle it for much of the year due to Contreras injuries.) They chose to... when they could have chosen to play what they had and focused on signing a bat at another position.
DG: The Cardinals didn't commit more than $80 million to a player because they thought, hey, why not? Actions and offers speak loudly, and the Cardinals sure acted like they "had to" with their offer ...
DCG: Just hopping in: Maybe you mentioned this but this is not my original thought, but isn't Gibson too valuable a trade piece to let walk? Sure, if he tanks next year, you won't get a return, but if he pitches as he did this year, he surely gets some solid assets, no? Wouldn't that be smarter than letting him walk no matter what the payroll goals are? I'm kind of the opposite with Helsley. You never know when relievers are going to crash and burn. It's hard to see him replicating this past year, so I would think his value is as high as it's going to get, and I would look to move him in the off-season. But do you tend to get more value for deadline moves or off-season moves?
DG: Yes, on Gibson. And I think that is an interesting facet of the decision that speaks to what I've been trying to say about how telling that decision will be. It's a quick easy way to drop a salary. But the ramifications are lost innings, lost leadership, lost presence, and lost asset to move at the deadline, perhaps. The benefit is reducing cost. So, what's the priority? The Cardinals will reveal themselves.
As far as comparing the deadline to the offseason, that's a great conversation to had. History suggests that the price for a reliever is high at the deadline but the interested teams are fewer. In the offseason, the whole market is yours -- no sellers, per se, and all buyers with the standings tied at 0-0. There is also no pressure and no urgency, and the inventory of available players is higher. It's all supply/demand, right? And it's all about leveraging which time is best for your situation. For the Cardinals? Creating and measuring the market for Helsley this winter makes the most sense. Trade at peak, ahead of arbitration, and before a pitch is thrown in 2025 and also while known contenders are shopping for impact relievers. With a starter like Gibson? The trade deadline is the more likely move to generate the best offers based on immediate, present performance.
Ken M: It鈥檚 2025 and you鈥檝e done a 鈥渞eset鈥. Surprisingly, in late July, you鈥檙e competing very well in the division. Do you stay the course or make some win-now moves to improve? Mozeliak鈥檚 decision or Bloom鈥檚?
DG: You make the move to win.
Yes, it will be input from both execs, and not just them.
Mike: I get this but their stance for next season seems to basically be "we don't expect to compete". And, as referenced... they aren't *that* far off. To continue the metaphor, the car isn't rolling yet... so can't they hop in, engage the parking brake to solve the problem of falling back down... but now since they are in the car, can't they also give it a little gas and get over the hill too? Seems they've just said...we're going to put a block behind the wheel so we don't fall back... but we're not getting in the car at all at least for a few years.
DG: They could, they just talk as if they're reluctant to give it more gas until their sure they're not going to run out and roll back -- farther away.
To continue to analogy.
Paul W.: By tying the starter to the DH, does that mean that if the starter leaves, the team loses the DH? That makes no sense, even less so than requiring a minimum number of innings, or pitches, or whatever for a starter. That just penalizes clubs even more for an ineffective starter.
DG: That is what it means.
And you nailed it.
The idea is to penalize clubs even more for an ineffective starter. That is the idea. To penalize them more.
John Caran: It looks like the Cardinals have mis-managed the Jordan Walker situation. Such a shame. He needs a whole new set of coaches. He'll excell if he's allowed to move on.
DG: Wouldn't be the first former Cardinals outfielder.
Max: As a fan of the game, are you surprised at all in what the Ohtani 50/50 ball is currently selling for at auction? Currently over $2 with a week to go. For comparison, Albert's 700 HR ball sold for $360k.
DG: I am not. Ohtani's status in the game as a two-way phenom, international superstar, and major-market star not to mention that it's the first 50/50 all pour into the demand for that ball. Demand will drive up cost.
Bretto: If you pull a pitcher in the 4th because he has given up 6 runs, it may not matter whether you have the DH or not. However, if the game is close, would you not just pinch hit whenever the pitcher is scheduled to bat>
DG: Maybe. It would make it a DH game from there. It would also cause the Dodgers some issues on the day that Ohtani starts.
Fan in GA: Watching young, hungry players can be rewarding, to be sure. But in reasonable proportions. Personally, a super AAA team doesn鈥檛 move the needle for me. I鈥檓 with Tony La Russa on this one - 2-3 younguns are fine, but a core of vets/proven players are what make winners. Gray, Arenado, Contreras and Halsey are the core of the team. Unless you tank like some teams and get years of high draft picks, I don鈥檛 see the purpose of 鈥済oing young.鈥 Thoughts? Or did your comment 鈥淭hat presumes they intend to contend鈥 say it all?
DG: The Cardinals got in this bind in part because they've been on the fence, or they've been in the middle, which is the worst possible spot to be. They don't take the one step further to be a titan, and they don't take the two steps back to tank/rebuild. They idle. The comments going into this offseason suggest that they are going to commit. They are going to choose a direction. If it's still on the fence, still idling, then the results will be about the same and what they can hope for is those results coming at the same time that progress is made for the young players they're need to emerge as impact players.
Jackie: Scott had a very good 2023 at AA, but really struggled this year at AAA, slashing .210, .294, .303, .597 in over 350 AB's. Similarly, his MLB numbers outside of a 2 week stretch were completely underwhelming, slashing overall .179, .219, .283, .502 in over 150 AB's. Further, his MLB DRS of -1 in 350 innings was not exceptional, and if extrapolated over a full season of 1000 plus innings would be nothing special. Given Siani's emergence with the glove, and Scott's raw tools and draft pedigree, why would this team even think about starting the season with him as 4th OF or CF platoon with Siani. Scott needs AB's and reps at AAA, and even if he had a red hot spring, we have seen this movie before with Walker, and what happens when a player is rushed to MLB without demonstrating proficiency at AAA.
DG: If given the chance, Scott might win the starting job in the majors. Just saying.
Matt B.: Could Hence move up and possibly be a closer for 2025 if Helsley is moved? He has yet to reach 100 innings in a season, but seems to have a good strikeout rate per innings pitched.
DG: It does not seem likely, but -- it's not impossible. The Cardinals really want to see Hence get that full season as a starter, and they've invested a lot of time building him and readying him for that to happen at Class AAA Memphis. He's there now. So I'm not sure why they would rush that having spent all that time.
Bretto: Baseball needs a profit sharing program similar to the NFL and NBA. I was in LA almost 15 years ago and a dodger exec on talk radio said the Dodgers could field a 400 million dollar payroll and still be profitable. As self directed TV from the teams hit the market the mid level and small market teams stand no chance of keeping their prime players nor sustaining a WS winning culture. Why support the Pirates, or Marlins?
DG: The NFL, NBA, and NHL call that a salary cap, and it is the reason why there wasn't a World Series in 1994. A salary cap is a non-starter for the players' union, and it's a battle the baseball owners have not wanted to fight again, when they can find alternative routes. The NHL lost an entire season to have a salary cap introduced. That does not seem appealing to me, and I doubt it does to other fans of baseball.
If there's any part of your suggestion that can work in MLB it's if MLB gets its wish and is able to pool all of those regional deals into a one-stop shop run by MLB to create a streaming service, a Netflix of MLB, if you will, that will benefit all of the teams. But the lucrative national deals that the NBA and NFL has -- just not there for baseball. And not going to be.
Matt B.: Heard a few other chats state that if Arenado gets moved (a mistake imo) then it would be wise to move Gorman or Walker back to their "natural" position. They both seem like 1B\DH types to me. Weatherholt seems like a lock for 2nd starting in Sept next year. What do we have for post-Arenado at the hot corner? Cupboard looks bare...
DG: I don't know what to say on this subject anymore, sorry. Gorman has shown that he can play third base. Donovan may be the better option there. When Walker played third base early in his pro career, scouts and coaches felt that he ultimately would move to the outfield. Voila. He's an outfielder. This isn't a surprise, and we've had three years of this for the narrative to change.
It just never will, will it?
Excuse me, I have some wind to shout into.
But before I do I don't know why Wetherholt would wait until September to be the 2B, if he's ready. That is quite a skyrocketing career for the young man, but it's possible. Just not sure why September is the magic moment for his arrival.
Joliet Dave: Per salary cap, what alternate routes?
DG: Luxury tax. CBT. Penalties for overspend. Lost draft picks. All of those things. The next step would be to create a salary floor, or some kind of spending penalties on the lower end. It's just harder to settle on and enforce those.
Bryan C: How many ex-Cardinals are still left on the 4 playoff teams?
DG: There's Harrison Bader on the Mets. There's Jack Flaherty and Tommy Edman with the Dodgers. On Cleveland, there's Lane Thomas. For the Yankees, there's closer Luke Weaver and everyone remembers that 5 minutes that Giancarlo Stanton was on the Cardinals when the Marlins agreed to a trade and then Stanton vetoed it.
St Louis Browns 764: With all the rich history of 最新杏吧原创 Cardinals baseball, I was surprised that the team or the Post Dispatch didn't recognize the 80th anniversary of the 1944 Streetcar Series here in 最新杏吧原创. The Cardinals took the series over the 最新杏吧原创 Browns in a very close six games. Do you know if the Cardinals or Post Dispatch are going to honor this great series.
DG: I do not. It isn't for lack of effort or suggestion.
I for one love to tell the story about the apartment that the two managers shared all season, or the story of Emil Verban and how his signature series as a Cardinals came before his name was selected for the society of Cubs fans who gathered in Washington D.C. to share in their sorrow.
Ken: Maybe I didn鈥檛 think it through. KC is a bad example. But something like what the Yankees did only it may take 2 years .The team does have young talent. They have a few promising pitchers. And you know what maybe some of these young guys that get significant playing time will come through.
DG: The Yankees' U-turn of 2016 is a better example, for sure.
Ryan: Cause Luhnow鈥檚 associated with winning. Cardinals won when he was there and he won with the Astros after their forced rebuild. I think you get hung up on the symantics. Fans want a chance to win the whole thing every now and again. That鈥檚 all. It鈥檚 entertainment not surgery.
DG: Hmm. "Forced rebuild"? Forced? That was a chosen rebuild for the fourth-largest market in the country -- and a tank that took years when it could have taken less time if they, I don't know, drafted Kris Bryant when they had the chance. Last I checked, he helped the Cubs to a World Series title and out of their rebuild before the Astros won one. But why worry about the details? Like, you know, winning percentage.
From 2012 to 2019, the seasons where Luhnow oversaw baseball ops in Houston, the Astros went 657-639 for a .507 winning percentage. I don't need to do the math on the Cardinals' winning percentage in that time because you know it was higher. The Astros won two pennants and one World Series during that time. One. And it was the 2017 World Series. Which you know is the reason why Luhnow's tenure atop Houston's baseball operations ended after 2019.
But maybe he shouldn't get the credit or the blame for that time with the Astros. OK. If so, then why does he get the credit for his time with the Cardinals -- when he was not in the top three for making decisions.
Fans should want a chance to win.
Absolutely.
Here's hoping they also want facts.
Aaron Knopf: No need to post this鈥攋ust wanted to say thanks for two engaging, fascinating pieces of recent reporting: the BPIB interview with Matt Carpenter and the article about the Cardinals seeking bulk innings in the minors. Thanks for all the great ways you keep fans informed.
DG: Thank you for giving the podcast a listen and for reading the article over the past weekend.
BL: Hey DG, thanks as always. Just curious as to where you personally think this is headed, based off of what you've reported and what you've seen/heard from a more insider point of view. Obviously this is a young team, so there will still be a number of familiar faces next year and it appears there won't be a teardown the likes of HOU, CHC, BAL like we've seen of recent years, where the major league team is legitimately a AAA roster; however, do you have a feel if you had to guess for whether or not we've seen the last of the majority of guys who aren't pre-arb or with at least two years or more of arbitration still available? You've referenced 2-way conversations, which is understandable, I'm just curious based off of all the knowledge and insights you've gained of this team, what your **opinion** is in where this all ends up. Thanks again!
DG: I wish I had a great answer for you -- an opinion that provided a compass to point in the direction of where this heads. I just don't want to guess. There are plenty of guesses out there. And I'd rather continue to try to pin down and learn more about what direction this actually goes than guess -- and claim some great win if I was write and ignore my guess if I was wrong. There is an outcome here where the Cardinals don't trade any of those players, and they lean on them to be part of the "reset," and hasten it. It would be very difficult for the Cardinals to shed all of those players via trade. It just would be. And dealing Arenado is a level of complexity that would take time and a really interested trade partner. Sure sounds like the Cardinals will pursue it if that's what Arenado wants, and he has the no-trade clause to make his involvement key. That's only part of the reason why seeing where this goes is so difficult. Not to mention the fact that the Cardinals don't yet know what payroll limits they're going to be dealing with. So many variables.
So, the down side: Seeing which direction this heads is really tricky, for me, for fans, for the team executives, too.
And the players.
The upside? Going to be an eventful, busy winter.
Joe B: To be clear, this isn't a lament about losing Luhnow, but about losing a significant amount of other folks -- the guys that could be the next Luhnow, Mo, etc. Seems like they had a lot of what made them success walk out the door and have had issues filling those roles with quality personnel.
DG: True. But the Cardinals aren't in losing talented executives. That's how the industry is built and how it moves forward. The Tampa Bays have seen a similar drain ... and the Cardinals are now one of the teams where an exec went.
Awalk: I was wondering, in your opinion, how far the gap between the Cardinals and contending in the playoffs really is. Watching the playoffs this year seems to give me some optimism. I feel like with improvements Bloom is going to bring the team can compete even next year. The Cardinals are on a tighter budget, but are going to be approaching this season similarly to the Mets this year. Personally, I have optimism in the direction the Cardinals are going. Also do you know where the Cardinals consider themselves to be lacking in the department of preparation. There were mentions by Bloom of improving the preparation for games.
DG: It could be as slim as a starting pitcher and a surefire, standout, middle-order right-handed bat for the outfield. It could be that slim.
The NL Central remains vulnerable. And the Reds seem best positioned to take advantage.
Wally: If the Cardinals are true to going young, is there a world where they say "this is basically our set lineup, let's see what they got" and give them at least a half-season of rope before platoons, benching, demotions, etc? To me, the starting lineup next year should be in some way: LF Nootbaar, CF Scott, RF TBD, 3B Gorman, SS Wynn, 2B Donovan, 1B Burleson, C Herrera/Pages, DH Walker. Obviously what happens with Arenado and Contreras impacts things and there are always injuries that happen. But to me, going with a lineup like this and letting them play without pressure is the only real answer. We've been told for a while a lot of these young players are top talents. Well, let's find out, once and for all.
DG: I doubt that would be the case with the lineup. Matchups will still guide the hand, just as they do at almost every team. Plus, they'll want to get a good rotation of young players going just to keep them all viable. A most-days lineup? Absolutely. An everyday lineup? Not so much.
Millo Miller: Greetings Derrick, I 'm going to piggyback the Seitzer question. He stated with all the injuries the Braves had that players were trying to do too much. The Braves problems were between the ears. Could that have been a big part of the problem of the Cardinals offensive struggles this year? With Goldy and Arenado not having their typical offensive years, could the rest of the players been doing the same thing? Thank you for the time.
DG: That was Mozeliak's theory, honestly. When I read Kevin Seitzer's comments, I heard echoes of what Mozeliak said early on in the season during the struggles as a concern he had. And then it played out that way. There are similarities there, according to people involved. Arenado also added to that concern, and Marmol introduced a few other reasons when it came to Nootbaar and others, all of it tracing back to that same notion. The Cardinals struggled to produce run, had some extra bases robbed from them, and got caught in the quicksand of trying to hit the five-run homer to get the team back on track.
The pressure was real, was palpable and the response sometimes revealed that.
tnbirdwatcher: I hope that Goldschmidt's glove isn't forgotten in the rush to improve the 1B offense. Much of the sizzle (and success) of the defense at the rest of the infield positions owes a lot to his ability to magically save errant throws.
DG: Bingo.
DT: Their only real commitment seems to be to spend less on a mediocre, at best, product. I don't see that as choosing a direction. Seems like more of the same, now they're just being a bit more honest about it. But, let's see what they do, not what they say. Convincing Nado, Gray and Contreras that they don't want to stick around and actually moving them, not brining back Carp, Lynn or Goldie, dealing Helsley for max value, and keeping Gibson because you think he'll have value at the deadline, that would be a change in direction.
DG: That's a fair outline of the situation.
Alan: I'm curious - has the low attendance at games corresponded with lower participation in your chats?
DG: Doesn't seem to be. But I'm not sure how many chats ever had 40,000 people participating.
Phil: Candidly, this is kind of an uncomfortable question to ask, because I love Willson Contreras' competitiveness, he clearly has been one of the team's best bats and leads the team in bWAR over the past two seasons, and I'm still upset at the way he was thrown under the bus in early 2023......that said, the team was at an even .500 this year when Contreras was on the active roster, and 14 games over with him on the IL (this includes 8-over during his May/June absence, so it's not just about Goldschmidt's hot September either). Do you get the sense that this is a fluke and he's had a positive overall influence on team chemistry, or might there be something to it and the FO would be pretty interested in making him one of their "cost-cutting" trades this year, then handing over the catching role to a tandem of their younger catchers in 2025?
DG: I don't put much stock in a team's record with an individual player, even a catcher, because there are so many factors. That is especially true when you look at Contreras' injuries -- when they happened in regards to the schedule, in regards to how people who were pitching, in regards to how the offense was producing. When he was healthy, he was the Cardinals most productive hitter. That's the number to look at, and over the long haul of a season that is going to make a player part of a winning stretch if outfitted with contributors around him. So to me, it's worse than a "fluke" stat -- it's an incomplete or misleading stat. It's not something to hang an argument on or evaluate a player, and I trust the chatters to point this out to me should I ever try to do the same without full explanation.
Wally: Derrick, appreciate all your effort. I'm a bit unclear on something. I've seen reports that the Cardinals intend on increasing their spending on player development/facilities by 8-10% per year, and I've seen some say that amounts to seven figures a year. Is that all it is? Somewhere between $1 million and $9.99999 million? Because to me, if the major league payroll is going to be significantly slashed that's not a big amount of money to re-direct to development. Goldschmidt, Lynn and Helsley together is nearly a $40 million salary reduction. Even if built-in raises and arbitration lops $10 million off that, it's still $30 million and thus no more than a third of that savings is being re-directed (and that's before factoring in potential sell-offs like Gray, Arenado and Contreras, and the possibility of declining Gibson's option). It seems to me that redirecting up to $10 million out of a $30 million savings is not meeting the moment. Am I missing something here? Or am I misinformed on this one?
DG: Since, the Post-Dispatch was the placed that reported the 8%-12% increase, I would argue you are not misinformed. But you are pulling together a lot of estimations and guesses to arrive at a conclusion that is just not available at the moment.
I get your frustration.
And I get that fans want answers now that the team may not have until November and December.
The Cardinals would like those answers, too.
They say they're going to cut payroll. They did not say by how much. And so any estimation of that is a guess at this point. Complete and utter guess.
In your case, you're guessing $30 million. If it's $10 million, then the number shifts a bit. If it's $20 million or $17 million, and so on. You are welcome to guess, and in your scenario the Cardinals would not seem to meet the moment. But we don't know -- and they don't know -- if your scenario is accurate, is what is actually going to happen.
Hence, we have the situation of 8%-12%, which could be as different as $2 million in additional expenses or $6 million. And even those are just estimates based on a range of possible spending decisions. That may not include additional spending on tech for new facilities, which would grow number higher.
Here's where we are:
-- Cardinals say they're cutting payroll but don't say by how much because they also say they don't know what their revenue will be yet for 2025. That checks out because we all know the limbo their TV payment is in for the moment, and that won't be resolved today, but it could be in the next month.
-- Cardinals estimate they are going to increase spending on player development by 8% to 12%, per the number given by Mozeliak. He did not connect that to a number directly lopped from payroll, and isn't likely to do. That will increase will include facilities, tech, and staffing, staffing on the field and in the front office level.
What all that means is that in the coming months is the responsibility of the reporters to give the details of these moves and these spending as they happen and become clearer. It is important for folks like me to get clarity on these increases, and where they went and what they're doing. But we cannot guess at them at the moment. We need to track them and explain them and report on them as they happen.
Again, I understand your frustration. You want answers now. You want answers now so you can have opinions now or affirm your opinions now. Please understand that such answers are tricky when the team doesn't yet have them or hasn't acted upon them.
You'll get plenty of guesses out there.
My goal is to give you answers.
Joe B: Is playoff baseball broken? First-round byes, travel days. It feels like the regular season is a marathon and the playoffs are something totally different. The Dodgers are regularly using bullpen games because of the frequency of off days. Does something need to change?
DG: Based upon MLB's goal to create riveting TV, grow viewership, enhance drama, and introduce more players and more teams to the October stage, well, it's going just swimmingly and isn't broken at all.
Mike: The Padres certainly don't seem to overvalue their prospects -- or, even if they do, they understand that prospects are just potential and haven't failed yet. They have no hesitation in dealing them for known quantities. Kudos to them.
DG: OK, so that makes two. There are 28 other teams.
Bretto: What on earth is going on with all of the Grand Slams in the playoffs. Seems to me, a grand slam was a once a season event.
DG: Power plays. Velocity on the rise. Stuff galore. Walks happen. Mix up the modern game and you're going to get more grand slams.
DC: Thanks DG for the Cardinals鈥 coverage and these chats! It makes Mondays lots better. Other than Spring Training 2025. What are date milestones along the way that will tip the FO鈥檚 hand on the extent of the reset? Thanks!
DG: First full week of November is the GM Meetings. That's where things start moving. First full week of December is the Winter Meetings. That's where the market really starts boiling, though it's not clear how active the Cardinals will be at that point. Those are the winter high points.
And the Post-Dispatch will be there with chats and coverage from each of those places.
Seems like a good spot to stop the chat. Got carried away in the past hour and time flew. Goodness. Combining your questions with my answers we wrote like 100 inches in the past 60 minutes. We are content machines, chatters!
Enjoy the playoffs.
Unless you think they're broken.
Then enjoy them anyway. Broken sure is compelling.
Gives us plenty to talk about.
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