Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt talks to teammates in the dugout in a game against the Braves on Wednesday, June 26, 2024, at Busch Stadium.
SAN ANTONIO 鈥 The Cardinals arrived at Major League Baseball鈥檚 annual general manager meetings 鈥 the first set piece of the industry鈥檚 offseason 鈥 having started the winter exactly as advertised by trimming payroll and still waiting to determine how much they have yet to go.
Other than 鈥渓ess,鈥 the Cardinals are unsure what their payroll budget will be for 2025, and as they gather with other clubs in a posh, golf course-adjacent Marriott resort this week in Texas, this much is clear:
Not everything is going to be bigger in these parts 鈥 because the Cardinals are not alone.
An uninvited elephant at this year鈥檚 meetings and weighing in on this year鈥檚 market is the ongoing collapse of the cable-sports model. What once was a bonanza of revenue fueling and fanning team spending over the past decade has become a slow-motion sinkhole with Diamond Sports Group in bankruptcy court. That has prompted MLB to take over the broadcast of a handful of teams, and it鈥檚 braced to do the same for others, including, if necessary, the Cardinals, though for a significantly reduced revenue.
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About half of MLB鈥檚 30 teams are impacted in some way by the potential of reduced revenues due to the regional sports network (RSN) unraveling, and that has many teams still waiting for clarity on what they have to spend. Executives with two teams echoed that sentiment, and multiple agents described it as a clear factor for some teams in the marketplace.
The Milwaukee Brewers, a team that had its cable deal end and will be produced by MLB at lower revenues, declined a $10.5-million option on All-Star closer Devin Williams. The Brewers retain control of his rights and can re-sign or trade him, but the move was done to reduce his salary.聽聽
Due to the RSN unknown, Cincinnati鈥檚 president of baseball operations Nick Krall said Monday he does not yet have a budget for his payroll and, like the Cardinals, is unsure when he鈥檒l get one.
Decisions throughout the game reflect this uncertainty.
In the past week, the Cardinals declined options on Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn and Keynan Middleton to shed $30 million in potential commitment from next year鈥檚 roster. As expected, the Cardinals declined to make any qualifying offers at one year, $21.05 million to their free agents, including former National League MVP Paul Goldschmidt. That means they will not get a compensatory draft pick if Goldschmidt signs elsewhere.
John Mozeliak, president of baseball operations, said the Cardinals seek as much 鈥渇lexibility鈥 as possible with their roster, in part because of revenue concerns.
During the GM meetings 鈥 which tend to be a staging ground for future trades or signings 鈥 one interest for the Cardinals as they begin a 鈥渞eset鈥 and pivot toward youth will be gauging the trade interest in their high-dollar stars. That group includes Nolan Arenado and Willson Contreras. Both have no-trade clauses and can dictate where they鈥檒l accept going, if anywhere at all. Starter Sonny Gray is another veteran with a stout contract and a no-trade clause, though he鈥檚 shown an openness to remain with the Cardinals.
Mozeliak said those discussions have to be a 鈥渢wo-way street鈥 with the players who signed or came to the Cardinals expecting a perennial contender.
The Cardinals expect to hear from teams interested in closer Ryan Helsley, catcher Ivan Herrera and lefty Steven Matz, among others.
The Cardinals also have interviews to conduct and jobs to fill.
As Chaim Bloom begins his yearlong task to renovate, innovate and upgrade the Cardinals鈥 player development program before he takes over as president of baseball operations, he has vacancies throughout the minor league system. The Cardinals expect to hire a farm director and a director of performance soon and from there begin the additions of coordinators and coaches.
The Cardinals have pledged to shift some of their baseball operations spending to the minor leagues, and Mozeliak estimated an increase of 8%-12% on player development. That boost in investment includes the cost of new technology and facilities as well as expanding the staff. The Cardinals recently hired a new assistant general manager to oversee development and performance, and Rob Cerfolio鈥檚 first public appearance with the Cardinals in that role is these GM meetings.
But the more significant change in spending for the Cardinals comes from preparing for a reduction in ticket sales following two disappointing seasons and a cut to their rights fees.
The Cardinals agreed to a 15-year, $1.1 billion deal with Fox Sports Midwest in 2018. Per that contract, they are owed around $78 million for 2025, according to Post-Dispatch reporting and research. FanDuel Sports Network, the new name of the RSN once called Bally Sports and Fox Sports, has approached the Cardinals to renegotiate the broadcast deal for 2025 at a reduced rate. Those talks are ongoing. What鈥檚 at stake for the Cardinals is significant.
The Cardinals have part ownership of their broadcast partner, and as a 鈥渏oint venture鈥 contract, they are not directly involved in the bankruptcy hearing. They are influenced by its outcome, which will be clearer after a hearing late next week.
The Cardinals are 鈥渋n a real bind,鈥 one industry executive said, because their bond with their RSN goes beyond the broadcasts to signage and space at Ballpark Village.
Teams like the Cardinals are estimating a cut of at least 20% in their rights fee revenue for the coming year, which could be around $16 million. It will be a deeper cut if they have to leap to the MLB Media option. MLB will produce the games and work with local cable outlets to distribute the games, but the MLB Media model hinges on subscribers to a streaming service and the elimination of local market blackouts. The revenue comes from subscribers. Commissioner Rob Manfred said this past summer that San Diego, a team dropped from Diamond Sports and picked up by MLB, had 40,000 subscribers.
At $20 a month for six months, that鈥檚 less than $5 million in subscriptions.
Now set to launch a direct-to-consumer model with MLB鈥檚 aid, Minnesota renegotiated the final year of its deal with Diamond Sports for 2024. The Twins got less than the planned $54 million this past season, the Star Tribune reported. That was the leading reason they cut $25 million from their opening day payroll from 2023 to 2024.
The Cardinals had 26-player, opening day payroll of around $175 million for this past season, and that included the injured list that featured Gray, Tommy Edman and Middleton. Through trades, free agency and the recent option choices, the Cardinals have shed $66 million from that payroll. Gray is due a $15 million raise for 2025. Addition Erick Fedde is owed $7.5 million. And arbitration-eligible players are due raises, with record-setting Helsley set for the largest increase, of around $4 million to $5 million.
With the raises and contract increases, that still puts the Cardinals at least $35 million off last year鈥檚 payroll. Trades would only whittle it down further.
A total of 13 players received qualifying offers from teams Monday, and that group ranged from headliners Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman to Arizona first baseman Christian Walker and Reds starter Nick Martinez. Those players have two weeks to accept the one-year, $21.05 million offer or assure their former team will get a draft pick when they sign elsewhere. The Cardinals have said they do not plan to pursue any free agents that will mean losing a draft pick.
As they steer toward youth, that鈥檚 a cost they want to avoid.
