COLUMBIA, Mo. 鈥 Get out the thumbtacks and string. It鈥檚 time to think out a web of what-ifs.
If Arkansas and can beat Texas, Tennessee beats Georgia, Auburn beats Texas A&M, Vanderbilt beats LSU, Texas beats Texas A&M and Vanderbilt beats Tennessee, then Missouri could finish second in the Southeastern Conference based on its league opponent win percentages, record against common opponents 鈥 actually, let鈥檚 not do that.
Technically, there exists a path for Mizzou to reach the SEC title game and the College Football Playoff. But because the Tigers already lost what was branded a CFP elimination game a few weeks ago to Alabama, that outcome is functionally toast.
The only path to reviving it 鈥 and 鈥渞eviving,鈥 frankly, is a reach 鈥 involves MU beating South Carolina on the road Saturday.
The 3:15 p.m. kickoff pits the No. 24 Tigers, ranked 23rd by the College Football Playoff Selection Committee, against the No. 23/21 Gamecocks for the Mayor鈥檚 Cup.
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South Carolina has a worse record (6-3, 4-3 SEC) than Mizzou does (7-2, 3-2 SEC) but is still regarded more highly. News of who will quarterback the MU offense may shift the spread, but the Tigers will enter Williams-Brice Stadium as solid underdogs.
And they need to find a way to win.
Missouri wide receiver Luther Burden III, left, runs past the tackle of Oklahoma defensive back Billy Bowman Jr. during the first quarter Saturday, Nov. 9, 2024, in Columbia, Mo.
There will be some degree of uncertainty at the heart of Missouri鈥檚 offense. Starting quarterback Brady Cook鈥檚 status may not be clear until shortly before kickoff 鈥 and even then, his mobility and overall health won鈥檛 be apparent until he鈥檚 thrown a couple of passes and taken a hit or two.
Regardless of whether it鈥檚 Cook or backup Drew Pyne, they鈥檒l have a different man snapping them the ball: Drake Heismeyer will step in to start at center with Connor Tollison out for the season.
Heismeyer has received repeated votes of confidence from his teammates and coaches this week. He鈥檚 a veteran, having been on the roster since coach Eli Drinkwitz鈥檚 first season in 2020. The Francis Howell product looked solid during fill-in duty against Oklahoma.
Still, it鈥檚 a difference.
鈥淭here鈥檚 a chemistry aspect of offense that鈥檚 disrupted when you鈥檝e got the center and the quarterback (changing),鈥 Drinkwitz said. 鈥淭hey鈥檙e gonna be new.鈥
At a surface level 鈥 or maybe it鈥檚 a sky-high view 鈥 Missouri鈥檚 path to victory probably involves keeping the game close.
The Tigers are 4-0 in one-score games this season, and were 4-0 in those situations last season, too. When MU and Oklahoma were knotted in a narrow contest last weekend, that鈥檚 what wide receivers coach Jacob Peeler reminded the Mizzou sideline of: This crop of Missouri players tends to claw victories out of those situations.
鈥淭hey鈥檝e all had a little bit different flavor to it,鈥 Drinkwitz said of those one-score results flipping MU鈥檚 way. 鈥淚 think it鈥檚 just all three phases of the game needing to work together to find ways to win and being dialed in what you鈥檙e doing in those phases and not letting the moment be too big for you.鈥
But that only matters if there鈥檚 a moment in the first place.
Mizzou鈥檚 previous two SEC road games have both been blowout losses. The 41-10 loss at Texas A&M and 34-0 defeat to the Crimson Tide are the knocks against the Tigers that have them outside the CFP bubble discussion.
All of this, it鈥檚 worth noting, is very much an external view of the Missouri-South Carolina matchup. You could even go so far as to say it鈥檚 鈥渙utside noise.鈥
Drinkwitz pays attention to that sort of thing. He stores receipts so that he can readily pay his one-liner bills. But he, of course, doesn鈥檛 want his players thinking about a game with this kind of angle.
鈥淭hat鈥檚 something that you cannot look at,鈥 middle linebacker Corey Flagg Jr. said. 鈥淚n college football, especially with this 12-team playoff deal that we have now, a lot of different guys are coming out with different polls, different rankings. None of this stuff will be right until the official rankings come out.鈥
So during each of the Tigers鈥 two bye weeks this season, they鈥檝e paused at team 鈥渃heckpoints.鈥 Taking the time to zoom out from merely trying to win the next game, MU looked more broadly at where the program stacks up, statistics, goals and maybe even the playoff picture.
鈥淭hat was the time we went over that,鈥 Flagg said.
The last Mizzou checkpoint was two weeks ago, between the 鈥楤ama debacle and the Oklahoma chaos. At that point, the playoff picture of the present moment was fairly clear. A lot of ifs and thens, tiebreakers and resumes, polls and projections boil down to one route for Missouri: beating South Carolina.
鈥淲e were exactly where we needed to be,鈥 Flagg said.
