Boeing was flying high in mid-2018 with record plane deliveries, record revenue and a record-high stock price.
Then came two fatal crashes of its 737 Max aircraft, followed by a global pandemic. Years of regulatory scrutiny and snarled supply chains ensued, coming at the same time Boeing鈥檚 defense unit was losing money because it bid too aggressively on fixed-price contracts.
Boeing lost a total of $24 billion between 2019 and 2023, and $8 billion more in the first nine months of 2024. Its share price is 67% below the 2018 high.
That includes a 50% drop this year amid more turbulence: A door plug blew off an Alaska Airlines 737 in flight, the Starliner spaceship was deemed unsafe after ferrying astronauts to the International Space Station and an eight-week machinists鈥 strike crippled airliner production.
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The strike ended Nov. 4, but new Chief Executive Kelly Ortberg has a long list of things that need fixing before he can stop the red ink and the embarrassing headlines.
Culture is at the top of the list. Boeing was once famous for a corporate ethos that prized quality and safety above all, but that shifted subtly under a series of bottom-line-focused leaders.
鈥淭hey had lost a little focus on the quality side,鈥 said Jeff Windau, an analyst at Edward Jones. 鈥淭he root cause was trying to get more planes out the door to generate cash.鈥
鈥淭he sacrifice of safety was a byproduct, it wasn鈥檛 the intent,鈥 said Scott Hamilton, managing director at consulting firm Leeham Co. 鈥淲hen you have the CEO, backed up by the board, pressing for cost cuts so you can improve margins, those cost cuts will eventually trickle down to safety.鈥
Richard Aboulafia, managing director at AeroDynamic Advisory, believes Boeing鈥檚 rocky labor relations are also a consequence of the cultural shift in the executive suite. 鈥淭hey put profits over capability and regarded the workforce as a tertiary concern,鈥 he said. 鈥淭his is not the happiest crew you鈥檙e going to meet, as evidenced by the strike.鈥
Boeing does have some things going for it. Its order book is strong, and demand for air travel is robust enough to keep both Boeing and Airbus, its main rival, busy for years to come.
Analysts warn, though, that the turnaround won鈥檛 be quick. Hamilton thinks Boeing will need 5 years to get airliner production back to where it was in 2018, and 10 years to pay down debt and rebuild the strong balance sheet it had pre-pandemic.
鈥淚t鈥檚 taken almost three decades to get where they are,鈥 Hamilton said. 鈥淚t鈥檚 not going to be fixed in three weeks or three months or three years.鈥
The balance sheet is important because at some point in the 2030s, Boeing will need to launch a replacement for its workhorse 737 line. Building an all-new plane is a bet-the-farm kind of investment, not the kind of move a weakened company can contemplate.
Meanwhile, any number of internal stumbles or external hurdles could delay Boeing鈥檚 recovery. Aboulafia worries that Boeing鈥檚 recent layoff announcement 鈥 aimed at cutting 10% of the workforce 鈥 could drive away talented engineers and other staffers the company needs.
Another danger on the horizon: President-elect Donald Trump鈥檚 proposed tariffs could ignite a trade war.
鈥淚f they鈥檙e serious about what they鈥檙e saying, Boeing is destroyed,鈥 Aboulafia said. 鈥淵ou lose the China market, and you get retaliation from Europe. That鈥檚 what you call an existential threat.鈥
David Nicklaus is a retired Post-Dispatch columnist who continues to follow the 最新杏吧原创 business scene. Reach him at dnickstl@gmail.com.
鈥淭hey had lost a little focus on the quality side. The root cause was trying to get more planes out the door to generate cash.鈥
Jeff Windau,
analyst at Edward Jones